Bon Retour J.C. Duvalier: Baby comes home

Last night Jean Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier inexplicably returned to Haiti after 25 years of exile. This was absolutely not in the cards, and no one knows who is responsible for the move.  Until yesterday, Duvalier was only spoken about in the past tense. A relic, a nightmare, a joke. A few words about Jean-Claude's past: in 1971 he became president for life at nineteen years old upon the death of his father, the brutal dictator Francois "Papa Doc" Duvalier.  Jean-Claude continued many of his father's repressive policies of state terrorism, censorship, and control.  Thousands were killed, tortured or "disappeared."  However, Baby Doc did not possess the terrible genius of his father, and the carelessly destroyed the alliances and support bases that Papa Doc had cultivated.  He was known as a opulent playboy, and after his marriage to Michele Bennett, got the government involved in drug trafficking. In 1986, there was a uprising against him and the dictator and his family was forced to flee to France. He managed to take with him millions from the national treasury however, before fading into financial irresponsibly and oblivion.

And now he is back.  The moment is particularly ominous: the Haitian government is at odds with the Organization of American States about the outcome of the seriously problematic election that occurred in late November. There is supposed to be a run-off between the leading candidates, but there is serious disagreement about who the leading candidates are. The OAS's (also problematic) investigation has lead to the conclusion advised that the president's candidate leave the race in favor of Michel Martelly, a popular singer with a right-wing bent.  February 7th is technically the end of President Preval's term, and there is no clear leader to take over. In short, a power vacuum. Could this be why Duvalier came back? Does he hope to take back power at a moment when government is on its knees and trying to stand behind its weaknesses in the face of international pressure? 

Of course, there is the question of how he came back. He has been in exile, and forbidden to return, I think.  Who gave him a passport? Who on the inside authorized his return? The guy came in on a Air France flight for god's sake, not a private plane. He is a known criminal of serious proportions.  Murder, torture, drug running, the theft of millions from state coffers, you name it, and he could be held for it. But he has been here for 24 hours, hanging out at a hotel and avoiding the press, and has not been arrested. It's possible he has taken the government entirely by surprise. It is also possible Preval himself invited Duvalier back, some incredible game-changing move in the game he is playing with the international community.  What the next move is, nobody knows.

My personal theory is that Duvalier is dying, and he wants to die in Haiti. Or he wants to attempt amends at the end of his life. For what it's worth, in 2007, he issued an apology for all the corruption and violence of his regime. In the photos, he looks like a broken man. He looks sick. He certainly does not look like a man who could inspire confidence as a leader.  But then again, in leaderless and stumbling Haiti, who knows. There has been "bon retour JC Duvalier" graffiti scrawled for a long time on the walls of Port-au-Prince.

So what's next? The rumors are flying.  If Duvalier can come back, is Aristide next? That's really the burning question. Duvalier is still considered part of the past, even if arrived last night. People really want to know what this means for the one that matters in many people's hearts. Word is that Aristide is in Panama, that he is in Cuba, that he comes on Wednesday, that he comes next month, that he is still in exile in South Africa with zero plans to return. What could possibly be in store for Haiti?!?